Critz's Strength

If Mark Critz loses the special election in Pennsylvania tomorrow you can't pin too much of the blame on him. Critz is doing a better job than any Democratic Senate candidate in the country we've polled on of winning over folks who disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance.

Critz is getting 15% from voters who disapprove of Obama and that's vital to his chances of winning in a district where the President's approval rating is a 35/55 spread.

For sake of comparison in 11 key Senate races we've looked at in 2010 no Democratic candidate has received more than 9% among voters who don't like the job Obama is doing. It is proving almost impossible for Democratic candidates to win any support from people unhappy with him and that underscores how difficult it's going to be for the party to win this year in the places where Obama is unpopular.

A Critz victory would be very impressive given the way his constituents feel about Obama.

Here's a table showing the level of support Democratic Senate candidates across the country are getting from voters who disapprove of Barack Obama:

State	Democratic % from Obama Disapprovers
Illinois	9
Pennsylvania	9
New Hampshire	8
Colorado	7
Arkansas	7
Kentucky	7
Florida	6
North Carolina	5
Missouri	5
Nevada	5
Ohio	4