The 2012 Senate Class

There were a ton of competitive Senate races in 2010 and the playing field could be even wider in 2012. Since the beginning of August PPP has polled on the approval ratings of 18 Senators who are up for reelection next time around. 9 of the 18 have an approval spread somewhere that's between +10 and -10, indicating the kind of ambiguous feelings toward an incumbent that can lead to a competitive race.

The three least popular and conceivably most vulnerable Senators up next time that we've polled on are Joe Lieberman, Claire McCaskill, and Debbie Stabenow. Lieberman has now reached the point where neither Democrats nor Republicans are particularly inclined to reelect him. He was able to win reelection in a three way race in 2006 by becoming the de facto Republican candidate- if he can't achieve that status again this time his career may be over. Missouri was extremely brutal for Democrats this year and McCaskill has not built up a lot in the way of crossover support from Republicans and independents during her first term in the Senate. Stabenow's approval numbers with this year's electorate are partially a reflection of the fact that the enthusiasm gap in Michigan was particularly large- but still indicative of trouble ahead if she draws a strong opponent.

In an unusual twist the most popular Senator on the list might be in trouble as well. Olympia Snowe has the strongest overall approval numbers but we've found in several polls a desire from the Republican base in Maine for a more conservative alternative to her. Her numbers with GOP voters are a lot weaker than Mike Castle's or Lisa Murkowski's were six months out from their primary defeats. Others near the top of the list are Amy Klobuchar and Jeff Bingaman.

Here's the full rundown. Obviously we'll be going far beyond approval numbers on these folks in the coming months to sort out who's in trouble and who's not:

Senator	Approval	Spread
Olympia Snowe	56/34	+22
Amy Klobuchar	53/32	+21
Jeff Bingaman	50/34	+16
Daniel Akaka	49/35	+14
Dianne Feinstein	50/37	+13
Kay Bailey Hutchison	45/33	+12
Tom Carper	45/36	+9
Jon Kyl	47/39	+8
Kirsten Gillibrand	42/37	+5
Maria Cantwell	44/41	+3
Bill Nelson	37/35	+2
Herb Kohl	41/40	+1
Bob Casey	36/40	-4
John Ensign	41/48	-7
Sherrod Brown	31/40	-9
Debbie Stabenow	38/50	-12
Claire McCaskill	40/53	-13
Joe Lieberman	33/54	-21