GOP Electorate Trending Conservative

Yesterday we wrote about part of Mitt Romney's problem with conservatives- they simply don't like him nearly as much as they do any of the other top Republican candidates for President. Today we're going to tackle the other part of Romney's- and any other Republican perceived to be a moderate's- problem with conservatives. They're likely to make up a much larger share of primary voters in 2012 than they did in 2008.

Over the last six weeks we've polled folks who identify themselves as likely Republican voters in six states that also had an exit poll for their Republican primaries in 2008. Comparing the numbers by ideology on our recent polls with what they were for the last election makes it clear that a Republican electorate already dominated by conservatives has become even more so over the last few years.

The six states we're dealing with in this analysis are Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Florida. Here are the facts:

-2008 exit polls showed that conservatives accounted for anywhere from 56 to 68% of the primary voters in these states. Our polls for 2012 find that range to be from 70% to 77%. The percentage of likely primary voters self identifying as conservatives is up at least 7% in every individual state, and that increase goes as high as 16% in the case of Wisconsin.

-Liberals have become completely extinct in the Republican Party. This may seem obvious but 9% of primary voters in these six states still identified themselves as liberals even in 2008. That figure is all the way down to 2.5% on these polls. Whatever liberals remained in the GOP as recently as three years ago have left the ranch now.

-On average the percentage of GOP primary voters identifying themselves as conservatives in these states in 2008 was 63%. Now it's 73%. And not surprisingly in addition to the decline of liberals as an influential force in the GOP moderates are on the way down too- from an average of 29% of the primary electorate in 2008 to now 24%.

These numbers make it clear how severe Romney's problems with conservatives are- there just aren't that many moderate to liberal GOP voters left to prop him back up. There's been a thought that a centrist could win the nomination in 2012 if the conservatives cannibalize each other but I don't think moderates have a big enough piece of the pie to get someone nominated even if there are a glut of conservative candidates. The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee. Here's the exit poll data from 2008 and our most recent polls in these states:

State/Year	Liberals	Moderates	Conservatives
Michigan 2008	11	33	56
Michigan 2012	2 (-9 from 08)	27 (-6 from 08)	71 (+15 from 08)
Virginia 2008	8	27	65
Virginia 2012	2 (-6 from 08)	26 (-1 from 08)	72 (+7 from 08)
Ohio 2008	6	29	65
Ohio 2012	3 (-3 from 08)	24 (-5 from 08)	73 (+8 from 08)
Wisconsin 2008	10	29	61
Wisconsin 2012	2 (-8 from 08)	21 (-8 from 08)	77 (+16 from 08)
Missouri 2008	7	25	68
Missouri 2012	1 (-6 from 08)	21 (-4 from 08)	77 (+9 from 08)
Florida 2008	11	28	61
Florida 2012	5 (-6 from 08)	25 (-3 from 08)	70 (+9 from 08)