Romney's Conservative Problem

Mitt Romney's been looking weaker and weaker in our 2012 Presidential polling over the last couple months and it's pretty easy to identify the reason why: he has a major problem with conservatives and there's no evidence it's getting any better.

We've polled eight states, not including Massachusetts, since the 2010 election ended. Romney has the lowest favorability rating of the Republican top 4 with conservatives in every single one of those states except Michigan, where he probably benefits from his dad having been the Governor. And it's not like Romney is just slightly less well liked than the others with conservatives- it's a large gap, particularly when you compare him with Palin or Huckabee. Romney's average favorability is 58%. Gingrich is next worst at 64%, followed by Huckabee at 73%, and Palin does best at 77%.

Here's the data on favorability with conservatives:

State	Gingrich	Huckabee	Palin	Romney
Ohio	62	70	76	54
Wisconsin	61	60	78	58
Minnesota	62	71	75	56
Michigan	60	73	75	72
Missouri	63	81	77	49
North Carolina	72	76	72	53
Montana	63	75	81	61
Virginia	66	76	79	63

Not surprisingly given that they like him the least, Romney also does the worst with conservatives when Republicans are asked who their top choice as the 2012 nominee is. In six of the eight individual states Romney is last with conservatives with the exceptions being Michigan again and Wisconsin, where he narrowly edges out Gingrich to finish third. On average Romney gets just 14% with conservatives in these preliminary trial heats with Gingrich at 17%, Huckabee at 21%, and Palin at 22%. Here's the full data on that:

State	Gingrich	Huckabee	Palin	Romney
Ohio	21	18	24	14
Wisconsin	14	18	23	16
Minnesota	11	15	20	11
Michigan	17	22	20	23
Missouri	15	28	26	13
North Carolina	19	26	20	10
Montana	17	23	22	13
Virginia	22	21	17	13

And because conservatives make up the lion's share of Republican primary voters, it should come as no surprise that his issues with them are now leading to poor numbers for him overall in these early snapshots. Of the last eight states we've polled Romney has led in only one- Michigan- and even there he could only salvage a tie with Huckabee. Huckabee has led in four states overall with Palin ahead in three and Tim Pawlenty ahead in his home state. Romney's average performance has been 15% with Gingrich at 16%, Palin at 20%, and Huckabee at 21%. Here's the full data on that:

State	Gingrich	Huckabee	Palin	Romney
Ohio	18	19	21	15
Wisconsin	13	18	21	17
Minnesota	11	15	17	13
Michigan	15	22	18	22
Missouri	15	27	25	14
North Carolina	17	25	21	10
Montana	16	22	23	12
Virginia	20	21	17	15

It's early but Romney has a lot of winning over conservatives to do in the next year if he's going to get the nomination.