Checking in on John Kasich

-John Kasich, already unpopular in Ohio when PPP polled the state in March, has seen his numbers continue to head even further in the wrong direction and is now tied with Florida Governor Rick Scott as the least popular Governor in the country out of 38 that we have polled on. Just 33% of voters in the state now approve of Kasich to 56% who disapprove. In March it was a 35/54 spread. Kasich's numbers are basically identical to where they were then with independents, and he's actually ticked up a little bit with Democrats. What's really plunging him is that Republicans aren't even all that enthused about him anymore- he's gone from a +53 (71/18) spread with them in March to now +30 (58/28) with them in May. That 23 point decline within his own party is largely responsible for his overall drop.

-Ohio voters are having some serious, serious buyer's remorse about voting for Kasich. They now say if they could do it over again they'd vote for Ted Strickland by a 25 point margin over Kasich, 59/34. Our final poll before the election last fall, which hit the results on the head, found Kasich winning independents by 18 points. Now they say they would vote for Strickland by 16. And while only 9% of Republicans crossed party lines to support Strickland last year, now 26% say they would if they had the chance to do it over again.

-Kasich and his first term Republican brethren across the Midwest may be the best thing that's ever happened to Barack Obama's reelection chances. Obama's numbers are middling in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa to name a few. But in all of those places he's at least more popular than Kasich, Tom Corbett, Rick Snyder, and Terry Branstad. You have a situation where people voted Republican last year and are quite unhappy with the results and that might keep them from voting Republican again next year whether they're enthralled with Obama or not. That series of Midwestern losses last year may end up actually enhancing Obama's chances for another term.

-The furor over Senate Bill 5 was one of the main events precipitating Kasich's decline and voters in the state continue to strongly favor repealing it. Only 35% say they would choose to keep the law, compared to 55% who say they would scrap it. In March 54% said they would repeal to 31% who preferred keeping it so those numbers are basically unchanged. Democrats (78%) are much more into getting rid of SB 5 than Republicans (59%) are into keeping it and independents split against it by a 52/40 margin as well. 45% of voters want to take things a step further and guarantee the right to collective bargaining in the state constitution, compared to 32% who say they would be opposed to such an amendment.

Full results here