Thursday, June 2, 2011

Klobuchar on very solid ground

Amy Klobuchar continues to rank as one of the most popular Senators in the country and looks safe for reelection next year no matter who the Republicans run against her.

61% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar's doing to 28% who disapprove. Her support from Democrats is pretty much unanimous (88/6), she has an unusual level of crossover popularity with Republicans (28% approval), and her numbers with independents are stellar at 62/27.

Klobuchar's popularity has pretty much driven off well known Republicans from challenging her. Announced candidate Dan Severson has 21% name recognition and Chris Barden and Dave Thompson, also mentioned as potential candidates, are known to only 18% of voters in the state. Klobuchar leads Barden and Thompson by 27 points each at 57-30 and 55-28 respectively and has a 28 point advantage over Severson at 56-28. In each of those match ups Klobuchar leads by around 30 points with independents and picks up about 10% of the Republican vote while losing only 1% of the Democratic vote.

Because the field of likely candidates is so obscure we also tested Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann against Klobuchar on the off chance one of them should decide to drop their White House bid and run for the Senate instead. Only 40% of Minnesota voters now have a favorable opinion of Pawlenty to 53% with an unfavorable one and he would trail Klobuchar by 13 points at 54-41. Those numbers are pretty bad but he looks downright popular compared to Bachmann. Only 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 59% with an unfavorable one and she trails Klobuchar by 20 points at 57-37.

With those sorts of favorability numbers I doubt Bachmann or Pawlenty could win a statewide race for dog catcher in Minnesota, much less President or the Senate.

Klobuchar's one of the safest Senators in the country up for reelection next year. You want to look for a Minnesota politician who could have serious Presidential potential somewhere down the line? It's probably Klobuchar. There are few Democratic Senators who have as much appeal across party lines as her and she manages that popularity with independents and Republicans without antagonizing voters within her own party. That's a good formula if she can take it national.

Full results here

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