Visit to Citi Field: Vision of a Dark Future

I nearly went to Thursday's game, but ended up at Wednesday's instead. Big mistake. Instead of seeing a spectacular comeback that will no doubt end up in the slim catalog of SNY Mets Classics, I got to see what a Met infield would look like without Jose Reyes or David Wright.

I did not find out until well after the fact that Terry Collins was even more annoyed than I was about the shoddy infield play that resulted in a steady stream of infield hits and helped the Pirates turn a 2-0 deficit into a 9-3 win. But what Collins really needed to be annoyed with was that Willie Harris is still on his roster and that Sandy Alderson has been no better so far at building a bench on the cheap than Omar Minaya was.

Things got a lot brighter Thursday when Reyes returned to the lineup and Harris returned to the bench. And then there was that comeback for the ages. So I deleted the gloom and doom post I started Wednesday night. After all, I did have a good time going to my first game of the year.

But ownership should know that even if fans can still have fun at the ballpark watching a lousy lineup playing a lousy game, my tickets in the fifth row of the promenade behind home plate were only $6.50 each, plus StubHub fees. And unless I missed it, they didn't bother to put the attendance on the scoreboard. It wasn't too long ago when the Mets would ask you to guess the attendance and put up four different figures, all much higher than whatever they are drawing now.

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If the Mets want to reduce the gloom and doom surround the club, how about putting an end to rumors that they might aim to keep Reyes, but then they would have to move Wright. What's next - Shake Shack will only have hamburgers or shakes, but not both? I actually read somewhere that this could be the best time to trade Wright, before his value goes down more. Yeah, when he's on the DL with a stress fracture in his back - that's the time to move him!

Wright, like Reyes, is a very good player who has done well in New York, unlike, say, Jason Bay. Nobody should be untouchable, but moves just to cut costs can help you end up with an infield like Wednesday night's - Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada and Willie Harris.

Fred Wilpon: Steinbrenner Without the Success

I am not a fan of George Steinbrenner, but he did resurrect the Yankee brand and bring multiple titles to the Bronx. However, Fred Wilpon's Steinbrenner-type comments on several of his stars in the New Yorker betray a mindset that won't result in any titles and could further damage the Mets' image.

The most successful big-market teams use their payroll advantage to overpay some players. The Yankees, with their $200 million payroll, can land a CC Sabathia by giving him tens of millions of dollars more than any other team. A.J. Burnett got a contract that seemed crazy at the time and seems crazier now. But the signings of Sabathia and Burnett, along with Mark Teixeira (who appears to have gotten market value), produced a World Series title for the Yankees in their first season.

The Red Sox and the Phillies have had plenty of questionable signings- John Lackey and Raul Ibanez, just to name two recent ones. Cliff Lee is 32 with a five-year contract. What are the odds that he will be great all five years?

But the willingness of the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies to spend big on several players, knowing that not all of them will justify their investment, that most if not all will offer diminishing returns over the life of their long contracts, results in these teams being perennial contenders.

The Mets have shown all too often that simply spending lots of money is no guarantee of success. But they have also shown that overpaying for stars can quickly bring a team to the brink of the World Series.

The Mets won 71 games in 2004. Over the next two offseasons, they signed Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner and traded for Carlos Delgado. In 2006, the Mets won 97 games.

Beltran finished fourth in MVP voting that season and Delgado finished twelfth. Wagner was sixth in Cy Young voting. Pedro made the All-Star team in 2006 before he got hurt.

Combining these expensive pieces with another acquisition, Paul Lo Duca, and homegrown stars Wright and Reyes (who both were top 10 in MVP voting in 2006) got the Mets to Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.

Many Met fans probably agree with Wilpon that the Beltran signing didn't pay off in the long run. As much as I like Pedro, his signing was not a success - he was only healthy for a year and a half out of four. Both Wagner and Delgado saw their Met tenures cut short by injuries.

One could argue that all four of these players failed to return full value on their contracts. But thanks to this combination of players, the Mets were a top contender for three seasons - 2006-8.

Say what you will about Beltran, but the Mets would not have been a contender in those years without him.

And Fred Wilpon regrets signing him.

Beltran is a Scott Boras client who probably wanted to leave the Mets even before the latest mess. The Mets are unlikely to retain him at anything approaching a reasonable value.

But Reyes is a much different case. The Mets may well have to overpay for him, but what the Mets consistently fail to realize is that it's better to overpay for a great player than try to save money by signing a lesser light to a still-big contract.

Two years ago, there were a couple of power-hitting left fielders on the free agent market. The Mets got Jason Bay for $66 million while the Cardinals got Matt Holliday for $120 million. Holliday didn't seem to be twice as good as Bay, so it looked like the Mets got a good deal. But as of now, Bay is almost worthless, while Holliday is a perennial MVP candidate on a pennant contender.

After the 2008 season, the Mets might have signed Derek Lowe for $60 million. Instead, they signed Oliver Perez for $36 million. Lowe has not been that great with the Braves and this year he has been charged with a DUI. But Lowe won 31 games with the Braves in 2009-10. During those years, Perez won three.

If the Mets had spent more money on Lowe instead of less on Perez, things could have been a lot different the last two seasons.

Yes, the 2011 Mets show the perils of overpaying too many players. But if you're going to overpay anyone, Reyes and Wright, two regular All-Stars when healthy who are still under 30, are a good place to start. And think of the potential alternatives:

The Phillies may be in a market for a shortstop next year, with the declining Jimmy Rollins also in his contract year this season.

What if Derek Jeter hits .240 and the Yankees miss the playoffs? Does the Yankees signing Reyes still seem so unlikely?

What if David Wright decides to become a free agent right around the time the Yankees are ready to shift A-Rod to DH? Oh, and Wright also would be a big upgrade at third for the Phillies.

Think the Yankees and Phillies wouldn't love to stick it to the Mets and pilfer their biggest names? The Phillies are so eager to show up the Mets that they even signed Luis Castillo after the Mets cut him. The Yankees turned all-time Mets Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden into important Yankees as well.

Reyes is no Tom Seaver, but at least M. Donald Grant didn't send The Franchise to the Yankees.

Last year, the Twins signed Joe Mauer to a huge contract. Now Mauer is hurt and his catching days may be numbered. It's unclear whether Mauer will justify his contract.

But the Twins realized they had no choice but to retain the face of their franchise. Now, even though the Twins have the worst record in baseball, per-game attendance is barely down from last year, when the Twins debuted their new ballpark. Twins fans know that the previously cheap team can now hold on to their stars.

Meanwhile, Rays' attendance and TV ratings are plummeting, even though the team is percentage points out of first place. But the Rays said goodbye to Matt Garza, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano. And they refused to give Carl Crawford money to Carl Crawford. Rays fans know that whatever success the team has will be short-lived because they can't hold on to their good players.

Fred Wilpon wanted to bring back the era of the 1950s by modeling Citi Field after Ebbets Field. Instead, he may end up bringing back the era of the late 1970s, when Grant's unwillingness to pay his stars turned Shea Stadium into "Grant's Tomb."

Rangers' Mark Teixeira Trade Bad Model for Mets

No Met should be untouchable. But if the Mets are going to trade a franchise player like David Wright, it shouldn't be for prospects.

The Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa offers three things the Mets can learn from how the Texas Rangers succeeded despite their financial difficulties.

1. Don't be afraid to trade a franchise player, if the timing is right and the market is strong.
2. Don't skimp on the draft.
3. Find value where others don't see it.

All three of his suggestions are valid, particularly the second one. It's a disgrace, as Costa points out, that the big-market Mets are next-to-last in spending on draft picks over the last five years.

But there are a couple of problems with Costa's explanation of his first suggestion:

The first major step in the Rangers' rebuilding process was trading Mark Teixeira to the Braves in 2007. Now, two of the four prospects the Rangers acquired in that deal, shortstop Elvis Andrus and pitcher Neftali Feliz, are vital (and inexpensive) components of their present and future.

The equivalent for the Mets would be trading David Wright. We're not suggesting they should do that, but if they find themselves out of contention in July, they would have to ask themselves: Are we another year away from competing for a championship? And if not, would trading Mr. Wright now make us more likely to compete for a championship in 2013 and beyond?

The Rangers' haul for Teixeira was one of the great acquisitions of prospects in recent history. How many times does a team land not one, but two impact players in such a deal? I can only think of one recent example off the top of my head - Montreal's trade of prospects Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon. And that trade had the mitigating circumstances of Montreal facing contraction, compelling Montreal GM Omar Minaya to mortgage the future to try to win immediately.

Even if the Mets manage to land one prospect that quickly pans out in a trade for Wright, it won't be long before that player needs some big money as well. After the 2008 season, the Rockies traded franchise player Matt Holliday for a package including prospect Carlos Gonzalez. Just two years later, Gonzalez finished third in the MVP balloting and recently signed a seven-year, $80 million deal.

Trading someone like Wright is only worth it if the Mets plow the savings into helping the team. The goal should be to land players like Gonzalez, and then pay to keep them around.

The contracts for Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are a waste of money. Carlos Beltran is likely to be quite overpaid this season. The jury is out on Jason Bay.

But just because the Mets have made some bad choices and have had some bad luck with many of their big-money contracts (I still think the Beltran deal was worth it, since he lived up to it when he was healthy), doesn't mean that all big-money deals are automatically bad. If the Mets are going to be a big-market team, they must have a big-money payroll.

The financial uncertainties surrounding the Mets should mean that the Mets may face temporary spending difficulties. It can't mean that big payrolls are suddenly bad, as Sandy Alderson appeared to imply recently. Alderson was supposedly brought in to spend money more efficiently, not to spend less of it.

The Mets also need to think about their history and how few homegrown stars have played most of their careers with the team. Maybe a franchise player shouldn't be untouchable, but those "face of the franchise" players can still get fans out to the ballpark when the team is out of contention.

David Wright should try Francisco Cervelli's Gazoo helmet

During last night's game, the Met announcers marveled that Francisco Cervelli was able to do well wearing what they referred to as the "Gazoo helmet." Last year, these announcers, as well as much of the baseball world, mocked David Wright when he tried the helmet after his concussion. Wright got rid of the helmet after a couple of days. But he has not been the same hitter since.

Cervelli, who had a concussion in spring training, might look a little silly in the oversized headgear, but ultimately anyone with a .342 batting average, 17 RBI in 73 at bats, and a ridiculously high batting average with runners in scoring position looks pretty good.

David Wright, on the other hand, is the one who really looks ridiculous at the plate these days. Wright has 57 strikeouts in 149 at bats so far this season.

In April, Wright at least was walking a lot (21 BB) and stealing bases (7). But he has only seven walks and one steal in May, along with a .236 BA. And his strikeout rate has actually increased - 31 strikeouts in 72 at bats, almost a strikeout every other at bat.

There's a lot of speculation that much of Wright's difficulties come from him having trouble dealing with righthanders pitching him inside. If so, perhaps Wright would feel more comfortable digging in if gave the special helmet another shot.

Last year, Mets' management consistently screwed up their players by insisting that they play through injuries and come back too soon. This year, it's players like John Maine who want to take the field when something is wrong and end up making matters worse.

Wright, who didn't even want a day off the other day and felt "embarrassed" to go on the DL last year after his concussion, is too proud to ever admit that he might do better with the special helmet. And who knows, maybe his problems go beyond that.

But it's worth a try. Anything is worth a try when you're on the way to the all-time strikeout record.

Remember when the media said Jose Reyes and David Wright were better than Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez?

Today's Joel Sherman column in the New York Post reminds me of two of the dopiest ideas pushed by the New York sportswriters over the past few years - that David Wright is better than Alex Rodriguez, and Jose Reyes is better than Derek Jeter.

And this wasn't pushed by one writer or two - this idea was pretty common in the New York papers from about 2006 on. You would have thought that Jeter and A-Rod were as worn out as Emmitt Smith in the Just For Men commerical, the way certain writers in this town insisted that the Mets stars were on the rise. As Doctor Phil would say, how's that working out for you?

Sherman writes:

Wright was going to be the Mets’ Jeter; the homegrown kid who mixed skill, intangibles and charisma to become prince of the city. Instead, he has finally passed Rodriguez in the worst of all categories: Wright is now the most dissected athlete in New York. We break down his swing and psychoanalyze his mind. What is up with the wild arm, the lack of clutch play and, yes, all of those strikeouts?

You see, this is why you don't make somebody an "untouchable" before they've really proven themselves. Jeter got that type of treatment after four rings. Wright got it before the Mets even won a playoff series. Now that Wright is finally getting scrutinized, and it's got to hurt, after the years of the media telling him how great he is.

On the other hand, A-Rod has a much thicker skin after all these years of criticism than you would think. (If you want to see the flip side of that, look at how poorly David Ortiz has handled getting criticism this season. But I digress.)

As for Wright, I don't know whether he is afraid of getting plunked again, or he doesn't feel comfortable in Citi Field, or something, but he's not quite the third baseman he was projected to be. And he's certainly not better than A-Rod. I remember one A-Rod hating Yankee beat writer suggesting a trade of Wright for A-Rod straight up to "get rid of the headache" of Rodriguez, only for the writer to then say that the Mets would never want to do such a trade. Another writer wrote earlier this year that he would prefer Wright to Rodriguez. Please.

And I do think the Mets rushed Jose Reyes back before he was healthy enough to play. I still contend they're not taking his thyroid issue seriously enough.

Sherman continues:

Reyes and Wright have dwindled from cornerstones to puzzles. The Mets went all in during the 2006 season, signing both to multi-year contracts, believing they had erected a long-term foundation. Now the Mets will have to decide on Reyes’ $11 million option for 2011 and whether a champion really can be built around the left side of their infield.

As a new Subway Series begins, the question now is not whether Reyes and Wright have passed Jeter and Rodriguez, but if the best days for Reyes and Wright already have passed and, if so, how do the Mets survive that?

I see Sherman's point, but I think he is going a bit too far in the other direction for my tastes. I don't think Reyes and Wright are washed up. But I do think that the Yankee-haters in the media pumped them up to be bigger than they were. Somewhere in between are the real players. It would be nice if the press had kept some perspective on them in the first place.


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