Showing posts with label Sirius. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sirius. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Sirius Higher Enterprise Value Than Other High Growth Stocks (NASDAQ: SIRI)

NEW YORK - The enterprise valuation of Sirius Satellite radio has risen considerably over the last two years. The valuation at its low in 2009, before being saved by Liberty Media was approximately $3.2 billion but today it is over $12.8 billion which means it a higher valuation than Netflix.

Enterprise value, though seldom used is the best true indicator of the value of a company. Enterprise value is calculated by market capitalization + Debt + Preferred shares. For instance General Motors had a market capitalization of $1 billion but it debt in excess of $100 billion meaning the company's true value was $101 billion. This means the shareholders owned a tiny fraction of the company's value.

According to the contract between Sirius and Liberty Media, which signed in 2009; Liberty Media has the right to be issued up to 40% of the outstanding common shares of Sirius.

Considering the company has 3.9 billion shares outstanding a 40% piece of the common shares would balloon the share count to 5.4 billion (3.9*1.4). The Liberty Media stake will be converted into common shares, since the liquidation preference on the preferred share stake is 0.001 cent and the shares are worth close to $3 billion.

This gives Sirius a true market capitalization of $10 billion and with debt of $2.8 billion the company's enterprise value is $12.8 billion. Netflix which is overvalued has a market capitalization of $12.6 billion.

Netflix has quadruple the earnings power and is expecting 41% growth compared to 6% for Sirius in 2011.

To see the full Sirius report click here.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

No Longer A Star (NASDAQ: SIRI)

NEW YORK - Sirius Satellite radio reported fourth quarter results today that showed a loss of $85 million or 2 cents a share. Without the extinguishment of debt the company would have reported a profit of $ 4 million. The company is being valued at $11.05 billion if one counts the preferred stake of Liberty Media that will be converted into common shares. Counting long term debt the enterprise value of Sirius is a staggering $14 billion, ahead of Netflix.

Sirius saw revenue grow by 14% in 2010 compared to 2009, and 9% quarter over quarter. The company is expecting 6% revenue growth in 2011. Despite this slow revenue growth the company is being valued at 25 times adjusted EBITDA which is earnings before interest tax and depreciation plus loss on debt extinguishment. The company is being valued at 70 times adjusted earnings.

To see the full Sirius report click here.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Why So Sirius? (NASDAQ: SIRI)

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) jumped over 8% on heavy volume today. The stock is loved on Wall Street and the company has been picking up fans since the eye of the recession when Sirius traded at a mere 5 cents per share. Since then the stock is up an astounding 3100% since then defying all of the naysayers.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Sirius Plummets from Space (NASDAQ: SIRI)

NEW YORK- Shares of Sirius Satellite radio plummeted following their Q3 results, as the company did not answer questions regarding the future of "shock jock" Howard Stern. Net income was a penny a share or $67.6 million. Revenue came in at $722 million which was up 15% from a year ago, but what about Stern?

Stern’s five-year, $500 million contract is up at the end of the year and investors are asking will he be back? Analysts estimate that Stern has 1 million active subscribers but the numbers could be much higher. An analysts which asked not to be named said, that Stern "brings the oomph to Sirius." Allan Edwards the CEO of The Markets Are Open said "Sirius has some attractive programming but Stern is the straw that stirs my drink."

Sirius shares dropped 6.7%.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Sirius Goes Back To The Future (NASDAQ: SIRI)

Sirius stock has rallied since hitting a low of 5 cents on February 11, 2009 but one has to wonder if this rally is sustainable. Investors of Sirius would call this a future oriented stock, but is it really? Let me explain ten years ago, satellite radio could clearly be seen as the future. This was because it had better sound quality than terrestrial radio, it had no commercials, it featured paid programming with no censoring, and it could be listened to everywhere. This meant when one went on a drive to another city they could listen to their favorite programming.

Fast forward ten years, and all of these features no longer appear futuristic. Music players such as Iphones connect to almost all new cars which allow users to play virtually anything they want. Why would someone pay for a a feature like satellite radio if one can get it for free, or for less money? Investors of Sirius would argue that the size of data plans limit this feature, but a counter to that argument would be isn't an increase in the size of a data plan the future then? There are many new phones that can connect to a car, that a user could run any radio station/show or podcast off of it in the world. Satellite radio looks more and more like a device for baby boomers who can't stand the terrible coverage of their local city terrestrial radio but also does not know how to work an MP3 player. Satellite radio is no longer a bet against terrestrial radio, it is a newer form of terrestrial radio. Iphone killed the satellite radio star.

To see the full Sirius report click here.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

When You Wish Upon The Sirius Star (NASDAQ: SIRI)

Sirius Satellite recently had their credit rating upgraded by Standard and Poor's to a B. Investors are looking at the company's improving operating performance as reassurance that the stock will continue to rise. Investors are also looking past concerns of what will happen to the company if Howard Stern permanently leaves. Howard Stern is a popular radio personality, but he has seen his ratings dramatically decline since moving to satellite radio. Some argue that the loss of Stern will be a positive due to his high costs.

Satellite radio faces intense competition from many other sources. However the stock gained 25% in September and many people are now betting on its viability.

Sirius reached a new 52 week high today of 1.31.

To see the full Sirius report Click Here

Saturday, October 2, 2010

(NASDAQ:SIRI) Getting Sirius After Stern?

The question is will it be a material event for Sirius stock after the exit of Stern. Howard Stern who is beloved and a hated radio personality was the cornerstone radio personality in trying to build the Sirius franchise. However was it at to high of a cost? This year Sirius will pay Stern 100 million as they have done for the last 5 years. The question is can Sirius remain popular after Stern.

James Maker a Sirius subscriber said "I spend most of the time listening to Stern on the radio, I also sometimes listen to Jim Cramer, but Stern leaving...well I am not sure if I would still listen."

Howard Stern used to have over 20 million listeners a week which is currently the number of subscribers Sirius has. Today, only around 1 million people listen to Stern regularly. Stern who is 56 has continued to hint that he is likely to leave the company when his contract runs out at the end of this year.

CEO of Sirius Mel Karmazin has said that after Q3 there will be an announcement on the future of Howard. However, it is likely Stern does not want to continue his contract due to his dwindling popularity.

Sirius stock is approaching a 52 week high, it remains to be seen if satellite radio has a viable future.