Barack Obama's poll numbers nationwide aren't looking very good right now but one place where he's holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.
There are two data points key to Obama's continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he's at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.
Obama leads all five Republicans we tested against him in the state. Against Mike Huckabee (48-47), Mitt Romney (47-44), and Newt Gingrich (49-45) the margins are pretty close. Against Sarah Palin (52-40) and Donald Trump (51-39), who Obama can probably only dream about running against, the numbers are not so close.
Obama's doing well in those match ups against the Republicans not just because his own numbers are holding up well but because North Carolinians for the most part have a very dim view of the GOP field. Only Huckabee is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters in the state and that's by a narrow margin at 42/37. After him Romney is the most 'popular' at 31/44, followed by Gingrich at 31/50, Palin at 33/60, and Trump at 27/62. If the Republicans had a really appealing candidate Obama would probably be having more trouble in North Carolina, but as of now they don't.
Obama is highly unlikely to get to the point where he wins North Carolina easily next year but he's definitely still in the game and the state should be hotly contested for a second election cycle in a row.
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