Despite his recent popularity spike there should be no mistaking it- Barack Obama is vulnerable for reelection. The problem for the GOP is that he's a lot more vulnerable against generic Republicans than the actual Republicans looking at the race. Nevertheless there's plenty of time for a lesser known GOP contender to rise from the back of the field and prove to be a strong contender, or maybe even for one of the current front runners to have an image makeover that makes them more viable in a general election.
Republican chances of taking down Obama are going to depend a lot on the type of candidate the party puts forward. Tested against a generic Republican we find Obama tied at 47%. When you ask about a couple more specific types of GOP candidates though the numbers move in different directions. Against a generic moderate Republican candidate Obama actually trails by 2 points at 46-44. But when you ask voters whether they'd go for Obama or a Tea Party conservative Republican he leads by 4 points at 49-45.
There's a particularly large difference in how independents lean depending on the type of nominee the GOP ends up going with- they prefer a moderate Republican over Obama by 7 points, but they prefer Obama over a Tea Party style GOPer by 5 points. There's no doubt Republican chances of defeating Obama will be best with a centrist. Whether the party base is really going to be willing to sacrifice some ideological purity to get that candidate is another question.
He may be tied with a generic Republican but Obama leads against all of the named candidates in this poll. He has a 3 point advantage over Mike Huckabee at 47-44, a 5 point one over Mitt Romney at 46-41, a 9 point one over Newt Gingrich at 49-40, a 9 point one also over Ron Paul at 48-39, a 12 point one over Sarah Palin at 52-40, a 14 point one over Jeb Bush at 50-36, and a 14 point one over Donald Trump at 48-34.
Obama does better against the real Republicans than the generic ones for a very simple reason: with the exception of Huckabee voters just don't like any of those folks. Huckabee does have a positive favorability rating, at 36/30. The rest are all in negative territory: Jeb Bush's net favorability is -8 (29/37), Mitt Romney's is -9 (33/42), Ron Paul's is -21 (24/45), Sarah Palin's is -22 (34/56), Newt Gingrich's is -25 (27/52), and Donald Trump's is -29 (27/56).
Trump is pretty strongly disliked across the political spectrum. 61% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans, and 52% of independents have a negative opinion of him. At least you can say he's a unifier.
The big takeaway from this poll: Obama is certainly still vulnerable but whether the GOP's going to be able to take advantage of that vulnerability is an open question. And the Republican base might be its own worst enemy when it comes to whether it's willing to nominate the kind of candidate who can win in November.
Full results here
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Poll: 53% Think Tax Hike Needed to Balance PA Budget
A new survey indicates support is growing for Tom Corbett who became Pennsylvania's new governor a month ago.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows 65% of those questioned are optimistic about the state, up from 59% in December, a month before he took office.
A month into the Corbett Administration, half of the poll participants said they had no opinion yet of Corbett's performance. But of those who have formed an opinion, the job approval rating is 3-1 in favor.
The governor is to release his budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1 and has said he would not raise taxes. However, Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, says by a 53% to 33% margin those surveyed don't believe Corbett will be able to balance the budget without a tax increase. That's a slight change (55% to 31%) from December's poll.
The sampling error margin is plus or minus 2.7 %.
Steve Mathews Launches New Website for Race fans
For immediate release - Sunday January 29, 2011 - The anticipation has built up for the release of the new stevemathews.ca to the public and race community. A new year has begun and with the 2011 race season just around the corner, Steve Mathews and Mathews Motorsports are proud to officially announce the launch of their website to the world wide web. Fans, and sponsors/marketing partners are what make the sport of auto racing possible, and the website is intended to keep both in touch and interactive with Steve Mathews and Mathews Motorsports. The website features media, schedules, news, blogs and social media, a fanzone and many more aspects for followers. With the season fast approaching, stay tuned in with Steve for any new announcements or news.
After competing in a limited amount of NASCAR Canadian Tire Series races in 2010, Mathews is excited to take his experience and apply it against the best racers in North America during the 2011 season. The 20 year old NewLiskeard, Ontario native plans to race in the NASCAR Canadian Tire Series, with all other plans still tentative. As Mathews Motorsports is preparing for 2011, they are also in search of marketing partners and are a prime organization if you or your company would like to see the results and benefits of motorsports marketing. Enjoy the website and visit regularly as video, blogs, pictures, and news will be constantly updated. Steve looks forward to seeing everyone at the racetrack soon enough, and presenting them with exciting news throughout the offseason.
http://www.stevemathews.ca/
Facebook: Mathews Motorsports
Twitter: @15Mathews
Youtube: MathewsMotorsports
AG's Office Would Take Over Gaming Investigations
A bill changing the way casino license applicants are screened has passed the Pennsylvania House 126-72 and is moving to the Senate.
The measure eliminates the Gaming Control Board’s investigative unit, and shifts its responsibilities to the Attorney General’s office.
Many Democrats argued the change would add politics to the investigative process. “Many of my constituents to not believe that the Attorney General’s office is, in fact, nonpartisan or bipartisan,” said Representative Margo Davidson of Delaware County, alluding to the AG’s investigation of petition fraud by Congressman Patrick Meehan’s campaign. Some Democrats have argued the investigation was less than thorough, due to the fact Meehan is Republican.
The bill’s author, Republican Mike Vereb, responded by pointing out Gaming Board members are all appointed by lawmakers or the governor. “We elect our courts, we elect our governor, we elect our Attorney General. The State Police Commissioner is appointed by the governor. At some point, someone who’s elected has a role in making sure these units operate,” he said
The change would cost $2 million, which many Democrats say the state can’t afford. Republican supporters point out the money comes from gambling revenue, and not the state’s general fund, and Majority Leader Mike Turzai of Allegheny County questioned the figure’s validity.
Republican Senator Jane Earll of Erie has said she opposes the shift. She chairs the Senate’s Community, Economic and Recreational Development Committee, which oversees gambling. Turzai insisted he’s confident the bill can still move forward. “We’re going to be prioritizing legislation for both houses to look at, and our relationship with the Senate leadership and their team, I think, is very very good. And I think any proposal gets an opportunity to be heard and voted on by the House is certainly something that everybody will take a look at,” he told reporters.
The measure eliminates the Gaming Control Board’s investigative unit, and shifts its responsibilities to the Attorney General’s office.
Many Democrats argued the change would add politics to the investigative process. “Many of my constituents to not believe that the Attorney General’s office is, in fact, nonpartisan or bipartisan,” said Representative Margo Davidson of Delaware County, alluding to the AG’s investigation of petition fraud by Congressman Patrick Meehan’s campaign. Some Democrats have argued the investigation was less than thorough, due to the fact Meehan is Republican.
The bill’s author, Republican Mike Vereb, responded by pointing out Gaming Board members are all appointed by lawmakers or the governor. “We elect our courts, we elect our governor, we elect our Attorney General. The State Police Commissioner is appointed by the governor. At some point, someone who’s elected has a role in making sure these units operate,” he said
The change would cost $2 million, which many Democrats say the state can’t afford. Republican supporters point out the money comes from gambling revenue, and not the state’s general fund, and Majority Leader Mike Turzai of Allegheny County questioned the figure’s validity.
Republican Senator Jane Earll of Erie has said she opposes the shift. She chairs the Senate’s Community, Economic and Recreational Development Committee, which oversees gambling. Turzai insisted he’s confident the bill can still move forward. “We’re going to be prioritizing legislation for both houses to look at, and our relationship with the Senate leadership and their team, I think, is very very good. And I think any proposal gets an opportunity to be heard and voted on by the House is certainly something that everybody will take a look at,” he told reporters.
Basketball: Tuesday Playoff Night Scoreboard
VivaLoudoun Tuesday Night Basketball Playoff Scoreboard
Proudly a dunk free zone
Tues. Feb. 15
Boys Basketball
Cedar Run District Semifinals
#1 Osbourn 50, #4 Loudoun Valley 26
#2 Battlefield 73, #3 Stonewall Jackson 46
Liberty District Quarterfinals
#1 Langley 60, #8 Marshall 39
#4 Fairfax 62, #5 TJ 60
#3 South Lakes 63, #6 Madison 44
#2 McLean 50, #7 Stone Bridge 46
Girls basketball
Cedar
Proudly a dunk free zone
Tues. Feb. 15
Boys Basketball
Cedar Run District Semifinals
#1 Osbourn 50, #4 Loudoun Valley 26
#2 Battlefield 73, #3 Stonewall Jackson 46
Liberty District Quarterfinals
#1 Langley 60, #8 Marshall 39
#4 Fairfax 62, #5 TJ 60
#3 South Lakes 63, #6 Madison 44
#2 McLean 50, #7 Stone Bridge 46
Girls basketball
Cedar
Hearing Scheduled Over Marcellus Drilling
Marcellus Shale protest groups gathered at Allegheny County Council’s meeting at the County Courthouse Tuesday evening to voice their concerns to council members and to call for a public hearing. Council agreed to do so and scheduled the hearing for March 10 at 5 p.m. in the Gold Room of the Courthouse.
Elizabeth Schneider of Marcellus Protest requested that all thirteen members be in attendance for the entirety of the hearing.
“This is a very, very important issue and your constituency deserves full attention as elected officials,” Schneider says. “Part time job or not your have three weeks to clear your schedules, 1.2 million people’s future depend on it.”
Not all council members attended the last public hearing on the issue in July.
Many constituents expressed concern about the effect drilling might have on water quality, and the health effects of chemicals that may become present as a result of drilling. The majority of those who spoke last night considered it a lapse in thought by council to consider allowing the Southwestern Pennsylvania region to fall into a similar polluting trend as those that the turn of the century steel mills produced.
Bradley Wilson said it is against Pittsburgh’s “green” standards to move forward with potentially polluting drilling.
“It is amazing to me that in this so called age of the green revolution in which we find ourselves building green arenas and convention centers, how quickly we fall into old industrial habits,” Wilson says. “We found a way to extract gas and generate a lot of money and jobs for the region, but this is a problem. It always is about money and jobs first, and about environment and our health second.”
The residents also spoke of the need to maintain the 2000 foot area between drilling wells and public residences should drilling not be halted altogether. There are proposals for 200 or 500 foot minimum distances from residences.
Elizabeth Schneider of Marcellus Protest requested that all thirteen members be in attendance for the entirety of the hearing.
“This is a very, very important issue and your constituency deserves full attention as elected officials,” Schneider says. “Part time job or not your have three weeks to clear your schedules, 1.2 million people’s future depend on it.”
Not all council members attended the last public hearing on the issue in July.
Many constituents expressed concern about the effect drilling might have on water quality, and the health effects of chemicals that may become present as a result of drilling. The majority of those who spoke last night considered it a lapse in thought by council to consider allowing the Southwestern Pennsylvania region to fall into a similar polluting trend as those that the turn of the century steel mills produced.
Bradley Wilson said it is against Pittsburgh’s “green” standards to move forward with potentially polluting drilling.
“It is amazing to me that in this so called age of the green revolution in which we find ourselves building green arenas and convention centers, how quickly we fall into old industrial habits,” Wilson says. “We found a way to extract gas and generate a lot of money and jobs for the region, but this is a problem. It always is about money and jobs first, and about environment and our health second.”
The residents also spoke of the need to maintain the 2000 foot area between drilling wells and public residences should drilling not be halted altogether. There are proposals for 200 or 500 foot minimum distances from residences.
Corbett Fires 6 State Workers Over Clinic Controversy
Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett is making 18 changes to Health and State Department policies, in response to an investigation of why state inspectors ignored warning signs about a Philadelphia abortion clinic where a doctor allegedly killed live babies.
Corbett’s new policies will require annual inspections of abortion clinics, and the public posting of the reports on the Department of Health website.
Regulators will need to review complaints of serious events at any clinic within 48 hours of an initial report, and then visit the facility on-site within five business days.
Corbett is also ordering the Health and State Departments to share information with each other on a monthly basis, and work toward conducting joint investigations of facilities.
Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams says he applauds Corbett’s actions.
The governor calls Health and State Department regulators’ failure to follow up on complaints about Kermit Gosnell’s clinic “despicable.”
The Administration has fired six state workers, and action is pending against eight others.
"People died because people did not a) follow the law, and agencies of government did not do their job and inspect to protect those individuals."
The Administration has fired six state workers, and action is pending against eight others.
"People died because people did not a) follow the law, and agencies of government did not do their job and inspect to protect those individuals."
"We boiled it down to this: people need to do their jobs. It’s not enough to prosecute the wrong-doing. We need to change the culture. That starts here. That starts now."
Corbett’s new policies will require annual inspections of abortion clinics, and the public posting of the reports on the Department of Health website.
Regulators will need to review complaints of serious events at any clinic within 48 hours of an initial report, and then visit the facility on-site within five business days.
Corbett is also ordering the Health and State Departments to share information with each other on a monthly basis, and work toward conducting joint investigations of facilities.
Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams says he applauds Corbett’s actions.
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