Going Inside the Enthusiasm Gap

There's been a ton of ink devoted this week to the motivation level of liberal Democrats and whether they're going to want to vote this year but our numbers suggest the party's real concern should be getting its moderate voters out to the polls.

On our national poll this week 58% of voters are 'very excited' about turning out this year while 15% say they are 'not very excited' for a spread of +43. Liberal Democrats actually exceed the average enthusiasm numbers with 65% 'very excited' and only 12% 'not very excited' for a +53. But moderate Democrats are near the bottom of interest in this year's races with only 43% 'very excited' and an identical 12% 'not very excited' for a +31 spread. Moderate Democrats don't get nearly as much attention but whether they decide to vote or not may end up being the most important factor in the party's fate this fall.

Also worrisome for Democrats is that the least engaged of all party/ideology groups is moderate independents, 47% of whom are 'very excited' and 23% of whom are 'not very excited.' For the most part conservative independents vote Republican and moderate independents vote Democratic so a big reason for the GOP's consistent strong polling with indys this year may be that the conservative ones are coming out and the moderate ones aren't. Conservative independents slightly exceed national enthusiasm numbers with 62% 'very excited' and 17% 'not very excited' for a +45 spread.

Moderate Democrats and independents may not get the cable tv attention of the liberals but their indifference is a greater threat to the party at the polls in November.

Here are the full enthusiasm numbers:

Group	Very Excited	Not Very Excited	Spread
Conservative Republicans	74	10	+64
Conservative Democrats	71	13	+58
Liberal Democrats	65	12	+53
Conservative Independents	62	17	+45
All Voters	58	15	+43
Moderate Republicans	52	16	+36
Moderate Democrats	43	12	+31
Moderate Independents	47	23	+24