GOP takes generic lead

Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot on our newest poll, 45-42.

There are two things driving the GOP's success: a more unified party than the Democrats and an advantage with independent voters. 89% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party's candidate for the House, while only 81% of Democrats say the same about theirs. Independents also lean toward the GOP by a 37-33 margin.

The GOP lead comes despite the fact that Congressional Republicans have only a 24/61 approval rating. GOP leadership has only a 40% approval rating even with its own party's voters. If Republicans do indeed win this fall it will be interesting to see if the party realizes that victory came in spite of rather than because of the current leadership, and if any changes are made. That could be critical to Republican chances of keeping the House for more than 2 years.

The undecided voters on the generic ballot tell an interesting story. They voted for Barack Obama by a 46/32 margin. But they now disapprove of him 38/48. And they disapprove of Congressional Republicans even more, 9/65. They dislike Congressional Republicans more than Obama- but will that be as important a factor in how they vote this fall? Hard to say at this point.

Full results here