Thursday, September 23, 2010

Primaries were a bad thing for GOP

The strong numbers Ron Johnson's been posting in Wisconsin polls this week are reflective of a broader trend: the Republican Senate candidates who didn't have to go through bruising primaries this year are much more popular than the ones who did. Johnson has the best favorability numbers of any GOP contender we've polled on in the last couple months at a +12 spread (46/34).

With the exception of Rand Paul the other five Republican candidates with positive favorability numbers also avoided serious primary opposition. John Raese in West Virginia has the second strongest numbers at 41/35 (+6.) The other three are folks strongly favored to win Senate races even though their states went for Barack Obama in 2008- Marco Rubio in Florida, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman in Ohio.

On the other end of the popularity spectrum are the five nominees who had arguably the most competitive primaries. Christine O'Donnell is the least popular followed by Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, and Kelly Ayotte. There's no doubt Republican chances looked better in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska, and New Hampshire before the tough primary contests and the verdict is still out on Colorado.

Contested primaries aren't always a bad thing but when you look at which GOP candidates voters like this year and which ones they don't it's pretty clear they were indeed a bad thing for Republicans at least this time around.

Here are the favorability numbers:

Candidate

State

Favorability

Spread

Ron Johnson

Wisconsin

46/34

+12

John Raese

West Virginia

41/35

+6

Rand Paul

Kentucky

45/40

+5

Marco Rubio

Florida

40/37

+3

Pat Toomey

Pennsylvania

36/33

+3

Rob Portman

Ohio

29/28

+1

Roy Blunt

Missouri

41/42

-1

Dino Rossi

Washington

43/48

-5

Carly Fiorina

California

34/42

-8

Mark Kirk

Illinois

26/34

-8

Kelly Ayotte

New Hampshire

35/47

-12

Joe Miller

Alaska

36/52

-16

Sharron Angle

Nevada

36/52

-16

Ken Buck

Colorado

26/46

-20

Christine O’Donnell

Delaware

29/50

-21

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