Unhappy Democrats are more likely to vote

I noticed something in our polling today that I hadn't yet this cycle. It's a well known fact that Obama voters aren't planning to show up to vote this year in the numbers that Democrats need. Beyond that, I realized today, that Obama voters who are planning to show up generally have more negative feelings toward him than Obama voters at large. And obviously the folks who voted for Obama but have soured on him are more likely to fall into the GOP column.

Our national poll last week- which is conducted with registered, rather than likely, voters- found that 88% of people who voted for Obama still approve of the job he's doing.

It's a different story with likely voters in the 16 states we've polled since switching over to LVs for our horse race polling in mid-August. Only in 3 of those states- Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas- has Obama maintained that level of popularity with people who voted for him. And in several key states where Democrats are having a lot of trouble it's dropped quite a bit.

The place where Obama's lost the largest degree of his support is West Virginia, where only 76% of his voters are still happy with him. That's why Joe Manchin appears to be in a tight race despite his high level of popularity. In Pennsylvania just 78% of his voters think he's doing a good job and there's a pretty strong sense that Democrats will lose both the Senate seat and Governorship they hold there, and quite possibly by wide margins. That 78% mark holds true in Wisconsin as well, where we need to see more polling but things are beginning to look pretty dire for the Democrats.

What these numbers suggest to me is that Democrats staying home aren't necessarily disappointed with how things have gone so far. The Democrats not voting are more pleased with how Obama's done than the Democrats who are voting. And when you're happy you simply don't have the sense of urgency about going out and voting to make something change. That complacency, more than the Republicans, is Democrats' strongest foe this year.

Here are the state by state numbers on the level of support Obama has maintained with folks who voted for him:

State	Obama Approval with his 2008 voters
Alaska	92%
North Carolina	89%
Texas	88%
Louisiana	87%
Illinois	87%
California	86%
New Hampshire	85%
Kentucky	83%
Missouri	82%
Ohio	82%
Maine	80%
Delaware	79%
Florida	78%
Pennsylvania	78%
Wisconsin	78%
West Virginia	76%