Obama's big drop in blue states

One of the most amazing things in our polling over the last month has been how dreadfully bad Barack Obama's approval numbers are with likely voters in a lot of states that he won by large margins in 2008. We've polled 12 states since the beginning of September that Obama won by at least 9 points and in all but 3 of those states- Hawaii, California, and New York- his numbers are under water.

The states where we do now find Obama with negative numbers that he won easily in 2008- Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois.

In the places where the bulk of likely voters disapprove of Obama it's not very hard to see the contribution that's making to tough Democratic prospects this fall. Democrats at this point are favored to lose Governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Maine. Illinois and even New Hampshire are possible losses as well. The party is also favored to lose its Senate in Wisconsin, could lose them in Illinois and Colorado, looks like it will miss out on a once bright pick up opportunity in New Hampshire, and had to be bailed out by the Tea Party in Delaware.

The big question moving forward- how much of this is Obama voters going to the Republicans and how much of it is simply Obama voters not being part of this year's likely electorate? It's likely a combination of the 2, and what exactly the mix is will play a large role in determining Obama's fate in 2012.

Here are Obama's numbers in these states:

State	Obama Approval	Spread	2008 Margin of Victory
Hawaii	53/37	+16	45
California	53/42	+11	24
New York	47/46	+1	27
Delaware	46/48	-2	25
Connecticut	45/47	-2	22
Illinois	44/49	-5	25
Maine	44/51	-7	17
New Hampshire	44/52	-8	9
New Mexico	43/52	-9	15
Michigan	42/54	-12	16
Colorado	42/54	-12	9
Wisconsin	41/54	-13	14