In the Florida Senate race Charlie Crist is getting 42% of the Democratic vote and Kendrick Meek is getting 41%. It's been clear for months that unless one of the candidates broke away with the Democratic vote Marco Rubio would coast to victory and with only three weeks left until the election that's looking more and more likely. Rubio leads with 44% to 33% for Crist and 21% for Meek.
Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin. That 20% of Democrats for Rubio suggests that some segment of Meek's supporters would be none too pleased about him being forced out of the race and would not gravitate toward Crist.
In a head to head between Rubio and Meek, Rubio would lead 48-41. Meek performs weaker than Crist because although he would lead with independents by an 11 point margin that's nothing compared to the 35 point advantage that Crist has with that group.
In all likelihood Crist and Meek are both in it to the end. Crist is actually slightly more popular than Rubio, sporting a 47% approval rating to Rubio's 45% favorability. And Crist does have a strong lead with independents in the three way race, 50-27. But independents make up only 19% of the voters in Florida to 40% who are Republicans and with his former party Crist's support has pretty much evaporated to just 14%. Rubio's the only candidate in the race with a really strong base and the 82% of GOP voters he's getting right now has him in a very strong position to win and quite possibly win big.
Full results here
No comments:
Post a Comment