Wednesday, November 17, 2010

NFL Odds Preview for November 21, 2010: Houston Texans vs. New York Jets (-7)

NFL PicksBetting Overview:

The Houston Texans and New York Jets are two teams going in opposite directions. Once the halfway point of the season hit, the NFL betting prospects of the Texans seemed to go downhill. They were starting to come up on the wrong end of NFL scores, and the NFL predictions of the Texans making the playoffs now seem in jeopardy.

The Jets seem to be coming together very nicely as they start to hit the playoff stretch. Before the season started, Jets head coach Rex Ryan was taking a lot of heat for being confident and predicting that his team would be the one standing when Super Bowl XLV was over. Now it looks like all of Ryan’s talk may be coming true.

Offense:

The weird thing about this game is that the Houston Texans possess a more potent offense that the Jets. But the Texans are becoming predictable, and that may be what is hurting them right now. The combination of quarterback Matt Schaub to wide receiver Andre Johnson is one of the most prolific in the league, and Johnson does have a skill for getting open even in double coverage. However the Texans’ luck is beginning to run out as Schaub and Johnson are starting to get caught up in coverages specifically designed to slow them down. Stop Schaub to Johnson and you stop the Texans air attack. That means that the linebackers can focus on the run and shut down running back Arian Foster.

The Jets have the 11th ranked offense in the league, but they are getting better rapidly. With weapons such as wide receiver Braylon Edwards and running back LaDainian Tomlinson, the Jets offense is getting more proficient at scoring points at the most opportune moments. To make things worse for opposing defenses, quarterback Mark Sanchez is rapidly improving as well.

Defense:

The Texans cannot stop the run, and the Texans cannot stop the pass. A glaring example of why the Texans are having so many problems is the “Hail Mary” play that lost them the game in week 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The pass from Jaguars quarterback David Garrard should have been knocked to the ground, but instead it was batted right into the hands of Jacksonville receiver Mike Thomas. The Texans defense is riddled with bad technique and lazy play. That is not going to cut it against the Jets offense.

The Jets are solid on defense at the front and in the secondary. The only weakness in the Jets defense seems to be their 15th ranked pass defense. But when you have defensive backs such as Anotnio Cromartie and Darelle Reavis defending the pass, it seems unlikely that the Jets will be giving up many big plays on defense. The front seven of the Jets is ranked fifth in the run holding the opposition to 90 yards per game. If the Jets defensive line can take Arian Foster out of the game, then that leaves Cromartie and Reavis to shut down the pass.

The Bottom Line:

The Texans defense has developed some bad habits over the past 10 weeks that Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense cannot wait to exploit. It won’t take the Jets long to put this game out of reach.

BSN Sports Pick: New York Jets

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